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System bet guide
★ System bet is in many ways similar to accumulator bet as it is placed on a number of selections, but with the big difference being that not all selections need to be guessed correctly to qualify for a return.
System bets can be played with bankers, in which case all selections marked as bankers need to be guessed correctly, or it can be played without bankers.
System bets are usually placed at longer odds and backed by big stakes so as to ensure nice profit even if a punter has several losing selections.

Popular system bets include Trixie, Yankee, Canadian, Heinz and Lucky 15, as well as different variations of the aforementioned bets. The process of calculating possible returns is not so difficult, but players may need the help of a betting calculator with more complicated system bets.
 
Betting systems for football
 
The most popular betting systems regarding football betting. Different types of mathematical systems and betting strategies.
 
Labouchère system
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The Labouchère system is used mainly in Roulette and has to be applied to even money Roulette propositions such as Red/Black, Even/Odd etcetera. The system can also be used for football predictions, if you bet on odds equal to 2.00.

Firstly, we need to determine our betting bank and the exact winnings that we want to accomplish. Then, we have to write a sequence of integers (“the Labouchère sequence”) whose total sum is the winnings that we want to try to achieve. The sequence can be of any length, such as 1,2,3,4 or 1,3,4,5,6,7,8.

The main principle of this system is that the size of our bet is equal to the sum of the first and last numbers of the sequence that we have already defined. In case of a successful football prediction, we cross the numbers, which we have used to form the bet. If we lose, we then add the sum of the two numbers at the end of the line and continue betting. A player wins when all the numbers of the sequence are crossed.

Theoretically, due to the player crossing out two numbers of the sequence for each successful bet and adds only one in case of failure, 33.34% are enough to make a profit and cross all the numbers in the line. Of course, to reach this attractive percentage, numerous bets must be made. For example, for 43.600 successful and 87.193 unsuccessful bets, we have 33.34% success rate for which all the numbers in the line are crossed. Let`s consider an example of less numbers in the sequence (7 numbers). In this occasion, if we manage to reach 62.5% success rate, in other words 5 wins and 3 losses, we then cross all the seven numbers in the line and make profit.

An obvious disadvantage of the Labouchère system is the largely increased amount of our bet on every loss. This is of course the drawback of the most betting systems as the main goal is to accomplish some winnings. The forebet team believes that the pleasure of the successful football predictions with a small bet is the greatest. Analyzing an example in which the sequence is 10,20,30,40 we can clearly see that after three consecutive losses the player would have lost 180$ and the following bet must be 70$.

The reverse Labouchère system is also quite popular among the Roulette players. In this system we must cross out the numbers on every loss and add the sum of the used numbers on every win.

The main advantage of the Labouchère system over others is that once we have established a betting bank we know when to stop using the system - after reaching the bank`s limit. On the other hand, if we have crossed out all the numbers from the sequence then we have accomplished the desired profit. In both cases we have an expected result.

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Fibonacci - The betting systems is one of those systems which are named after the discoverer of the mathematical dependency.
Leonardo Fibonacci was an Italian mathematician, one of the most talented mathematicians of the Middle Ages. He contributed greatly to the rebirth of mathematics. In his most famous work - " Book of Calculation" Fibonacci uses the Hindu-Arabic numeral system as an example. This number sequence was later named after him ("Fibonacci numbers"), but this is not actually his discovery. Fibonacci learned of this sequence in the countries in the East and popularized it. The Fibonacci numbers are in their nature a series of numbers, each of which is obtained as the sum of the previous two. (1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, ...).
The Fibonacci numbers have countless applications. Nowadays, a lot of players use them as a system for allocation of personal finances for gambling and of course insports betting . The basic principle in the Fibonacci system is increasing the size of the bet at every loss according to the Fibonacci sequence. If the player wins, the bet must be reduced, again according to the Fibonacci numbers, but skipping two numbers backwards.

Example: Let's start a series of bets with a bet of 1$. According to the system if we lose our first bet, the second bet must be 2$. If we lose again, our third bet should be 3$ and if we lose once more the next bet has to be 5$, and so on at every loss. (1,2,3,5,8, ...). If the fifth attempt is successful, in other words the bet with 8$, then the following bet should be two steps back in the numbers sequence – 3$.

The system is very easy to use and is preferred by many players. Using the Fibonacci system rather than betting with random amounts can help the player to stay longer in the game with the same bank. The development of our bank when using this system is much slower than if we follow the system of D'Alembert or Martingale, which is a plus. However, we can find ourselves in a rather unpleasant situation using this method, if we make a long series of unsuccessful bets. In football predictionsshould you decide to follow this system, it is advisable to bet on odds equal or greater than 2.00.

The forebet team advises you to consider carefully the use of any system. Consider in depth your goals and your betting bank. Remember that the pleasure of making a successful football prediction is the most important.
 
Jean-Baptiste le Rond d'Alembert

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Jean-Baptiste le Rond d'Alembert was a French mathematician, physicist and philosopher.
The forebet team noticed some wrong interpretations of the D’Alembert strategy published on the Internet. So, we decided to include this betting strategy, named after this great mathematician.

The D’Alembert system is simply to decrease the bet when you win and increase it when you lose. This system leads us to the thought of the well-known “gambler's fallacy”, which is the belief that if deviations from expected behavior are observed in repeated independent trials of some random process, future deviations in the opposite direction are then more likely. Simply put, a “gambler's fallacy” is to think that it is more likely to win, after a series consecutive losses. 

The “gambler's fallacy” is also known as the “Monte Carlo fallacy”, because its most popular example occurred at a casino at Monte Carlo in 1913. That time, at a roulette game, the ball fell in black 26 times in a row. Thus, some gamblers lost millions betting on red, believing that after a series of blacks a red should follow.

In his article “Croix ou Pile” D’Alembert makes his famous error of the “gambler`s fallacy” type, claiming that the probability of a coin landing heads increases for every time that it comes up tails.

The D’Alembert strategy is quite similar to the Martingale strategy. Our team advices you to choose your betting strategy carefully and not to follow some systems, only because of their popular name. Otherwise, you risk to find yourself in the trap of the “gambler's fallacy”, which might result in serious losses. Thus, you will lose the pure satisfaction of your correct predictions.

You should gamble with reason and only for pleasure.
 

 

 

 

 

The Martingale fallacy

Considered by many a good and successful betting strategy, the Martingale has put a lot of people into a rather uncomfortable position. The forebet team believes that the Martingale strategy is misunderstood and it is not advisable to use it.

If you follow this strategy you will have to double your bet after every loss so that the first win would recover all previous losses plus win a profit equal to the original stake. After the first winning bet you continue with bets equal to the last one. We have to point out that this strategy is mathematically correct if the bookmaker`s odd on which you are planning to place your bet must be at least 2.00.

We believe that this strategy is not relevant, because it is related to large amount of betting “bank” and you might find yourself in an unpleasant situation. After all you have to enjoy the game. For instance if you start your series of bets with 2 units, after only 6 loosing bets in a row you will have to bet 128 units. Imagine you place a bet of 128 for a win of only 2 units.

One of the greatest gambler`s fallacy is the belief that an even which has not occurred recently is likely to happen in the present. A lot of gamblers follow this totally wrong decision and bet on the opposite of recent outcomes, which is the main idea of the Martingale. Unfortunately, it is not so difficult a long series of bets to result in losses. In such case, if you have followed the Martingale strategy, you will have to bet a large amount of your betting “bank” in order to TRY to cover your losses and have a profit of only 1 unit (the unit you have started betting with). Our team advises you not to do this and be reasonable and most importantly enjoy the game.

 

Always try to bet with "value". A bet has a "value" if you think that the bookmakers odds are set at a level, at which the reward outweighs the risk. To check whether a bet has a "value" you must do the following:

  • - Calculate the probability of success of your prediction (forebet does this for you in percentages).
  • - Find the best decimal price.
  • - Multiply the percentage chance of a win against the odds.

Any result equal or greater than 1.00 means that your bet has a "value".

So if you think a team has 50% chance of winning, than you must bet on this win only if the bookmakers odd is 2.00 or greater, because 2.00*50% = 1.00. Therefore, it is advisable not to bet only because you are certain of your bet, but to check whether the bet has a "value.

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